Your 2008 St. Louis Cardinals

Okay, so I've been meaning to post a blog or something for two months now. I've been busier than before and not lacking in things to write about, so my inability to write a blog is pretty lame. I'll try to be better.

I'm currently in Montpellier, France in a youth hostel. I've spent three awesome days here and I'm chilling before dinner. I've taken lots of awesome pictures, made a new friend, did some exploring of the mountains north of town and just had a blast. I'm going to the beach (the Mediterranean is about 10km south) tomorrow for the day before I head back to Privas. That's what's shaking at the moment. Now, on to the topic at hand!
This morning I got an email from my buddy Joe G asking me about the Cardinals-as in my beloved St. Louis Cardinals, my baseball team de preference since I was old enough to remember and the 2006 World Series Champions. Why an email? Well, they sucked last year every pundit and writer seems to believe they'll suck again this year, possibly worse than last year. I believe they are misinformed. Here's what I wrote him, with a few changes to make it read more bloggystyle and less emailystyle; warning-baseball statistics galore to follow!:
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So, about the Cardinals...they aren't anywhere near as bad as most baseball writers and researchers would have you believe. While I still think they're probably going to win 79-85 games, they'll be a really fun team to watch and they'll sneak up on a lot of people. And best of all, if everything breaks right, this is a team that could be DANGEROUS come August and September. I mean, playoff-run quality DANGEROUS. They'll need a lot of breaks for that to happen, but it's better than the hopelessness that last year became. Here's why:

When you think about last year, you notice how bad the starting pitching was. A lot of those guys are back this year. However, consider this: the quartet Kip Wells, a struggling Anthony Reyes, a still-hurt Mark Mulder and Mike Freaking Maroth put up this pitching line:

Starts: 56
Wins: 9
Losses: 39!!!!!!
ERA: 6.63!!!!
Strikeouts: 222
IP: 319

You subtract that element from the rotation and everybody else has a 69-45 record. Amazing, isn't it? Now, all they have to do is get league-average performance from Looper, Pineiro, Wellemeyer and Thompson-and then Carpenter and Mulder (and possibly Clement) and we're talking a team that's already AT LEAST 10 games better. The rotation should be a lot better, and I think it's going to surprise a lot of people. There's almost no way it could even come close to being as bad as it was last year. Look at those numbers again-that's more than a third of the starts from last year.

Okay, now let's talk about an upgraded offense. Pujols is hurt, but that story is really overblown. Yes, he's hurt...but it's a manageable hurt. He'll play until he can't do it. He was really banged up last year, but that was due more to multiple injuries (he had serious problems with his hamstring too that seem to be resolved) and too much training during the offseason. He seems to be doing much better this year. Here's where the real difference comes in: they're seriously upgraded at at least three positions!

Look at Rolen's line from last year: .265 BA, 8HR, 58 RBIs, .398SLG (!!!) and a .729OPS overall. His defense was slipping too. That's AWFUL production from a third baseman. If Glaus stays healthy, he'll put up 30+ HRs, 90+ RBIs and play decent enough defense.

Here's Edmonds' line from last year: .252 BA, 12 HR, 53 RBIs, .403 SLG, and a .728 OPS. Again, not very good. Between Ankiel and Rasmus they'll at least double the power numbers and put up a better batting average. Furthermore, their defense will be better too. A lot of fielding ratings claim that Edmonds was the worst defensive CF in the NL last year. The truth comes hard, but man-Edmonds and Rolen are LONG past their prime.

Adam Kennedy was flat-out AWFUL last year. Here are his numbers: .219 BA, 3 HRs, 18 (!!!) RBIs, .290 SLG (!!!), .572 OPS (!!!!!!). This position will be upgraded, either because Kennedy couldn't possibly be as bad this year as he was last year or because Brendan Ryan will take it over for him. Also, keep an eye on Jarett Hoffpauir down in AAA-he can swing the bat and has the makings of a better Brendan Ryan.

Furthermore, RF should be much improved as well with a full season of Rick Ankiel, who has monster power. Last year it was manned by Juan Encarnacion much of the year. I won't post his below-average numbers out of respect for his freak injury from last year (for those of you not in the know, he was hit in the face with a foul ball and suffered massive head injuries; his vision may be permenently damaged).

We're talking FOUR offensive positions (five if you include the fact Albert had the worst offensive season of his career last year) where there will be an offensive upgrade. They're middling right now but as it warms up they should as well.

Okay, there's another crucial reason why the Cards will be better this year: it sounds like the clubhouse chemistry is about 1000% better this year. Between players going to Edmonds for advice instead of asking LaRussa, all the partying going on with Spiezio, Hancock (and Edmonds), and Scott Rolen's utter hatred of LaRussa, and factor in how demoralized they were after losing Carpenter on the first weekend and it's obvious that things were rotten in the clubhouse. It sounds like things are going really well in that area this year; all the young guys are bonding and all the winning early on is rubbing off. Having Rolen and Edmonds gone really helps too.

Speaking of youth, I don't know where all these articles talking about how "old" the Cardinals are coming from-seriously, this is a MUCH younger team. And speaking of youth, for the first time in a long time, the Cardinals have DEPTH in the farm system. There's Colby Rasmus, but there's also Chris Perez (96mph fastball and ridiculous slider; occasional control problems), Jason Motte (98mph fastball) and Mark Worrell (not a hard thrower but has a deceptive delivery and has succeeded everywhere he's gone; not related to Todd) in the Memphis bullpen; Joe Mather hit a ton in Spring Training and Skip Schumaker will be in Memphis soon enough (barring a trade) to provide outfield depth; Mike Parisi is a pretty good SP in Memphis who can provide league average pitching and who apparently has an incredible curveball; and it sounds like either Allan Craig or David Freese could come up if something bad happened to Glaus. They haven't had this kind of depth in a long time. Furthermore, they also have depth (particularly with SP, OF and RP) to make a trade or two during the season.

I'll make two more points here before I finish. First of all, their schedule is incredibly favorable with tons of home games against weak teams in April and May. They'll have a chance to do what they're doing-that is, jump out to a great start while they wait for everyone to get healthy. Then they'll be positioned to make a run with a far superior team. I'll spell this out for you: look at this 25-man roster for July and August and tell me it doesn't look awesome:

C: Molina
1b: Albert
2b: Kennedy (okay, 2b and SS don't look awesome)
3b: Blaus
SS: Izturis
OF: Duncan
OF: Rasmus
OF: Ankiel

Bench:
C: Jason Larue
2b/SS: Aaron Miles
2b/SS/3b: Brendan Ryan
OF: Ryan Ludwick
OF: Brian Barton (awesome!)

Rotation:
1: Chris Carpenter
2: Adam Wainwright
3: Mark Mulder/Joel Piniero
4: Joel Piniero/Kyle Lohse
5: Kyle Lohse/Braden Looper/Todd Wellemeyer/Brad Thompson/Anthony Reyes

(two of these guys won't be starting much longer...that's a good problem to have)

Bullpen:
CL: Izzy
RHP: Ryan Franklin
RHP: Russ Springer
RHP: Josh Kinney/Chris Perez
RHP: Brad Thompson/Anthony Reyes
LHP: Randy Flores
LHP: Tyler Johnson/Ron Villone

All of these are good problems to have, as there's depth everywhere. Tell me that team doesn't look like it would be tough! There are some wrinkles, but it still looks like a really strong team. More accurately, as I said earlier, it's a dangerous team. A team that could very easily play a spoiler role in 2008 and be seriously good in 2009 (not that free agency can get you much these days, but they also have as much as $40 million coming off the books after this year too!).

Finally, consider this: this team dealt with Josh Hancock's death, encouraged by a party culture in the clubhouse that sapped at the production level of several key players and helped push Scott Spiezio's substance abuse problem over the edge; DL-worthy injuries to 22 of the 25 players on the opening day roster including a demoralizing injury to staff ace Carpenter on the first week of the season and a freak career-ending injury to Juan Encarnacion; an embarrassing (though overblown, considering he'd had two glasses of wine) DUI for LaRussa during Spring Training; 56 starts of Kip Wells, a flawed mechanics and totally lost Anthony Reyes, a hopeless Mike Maroth and a still-hurt Mark Mulder; a serious case of championship hangover; a toxic clubhouse created by the aforementioned party culture and Scott Rolen's continued hatred of LaRussa; and a morally crushing HGH story leaking about Rick Ankiel just as he'd come up and provided a huge lift to the team, bringing them to within 1 game of first place in August despite all the other BS going on around the team. ALL of this happened in 2007-and they still finished 7 games out of first at a respectable though not all that great 78-84. Amazing.

When you consider how much better things are going all around the team, you would absolutely expect them to outperform the mess that was last year. I know their Pythagorean record was 71-91 (a better reflection of how bad they were last year) but they still managed to win 78 games. And they're FAR, FAR better this year. And they seem to be having fun.

THAT is why I love this team and THAT is why I think they're going to surprise a lot of people. Do I think they'll win the division? Not really. But they could. I wouldn't put it past them. All the doomsdayers who predicted this would be a sinking ship destined for 5th in the NL Central are a year behind. They aren't a great team but they're far, far better than that and they are showing it so far. In reality, the doom the same writers predicted came last year-and they still finished 78-84 in the bottoming out expected after winning a World Series. My prediction for this year: 85-77, 3rd in the Central and serious spoiler.

Now, as for who will actually play in the playoffs this year, here's how I see the divisions going:

NL East: New York Mets (94-68)
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks (96-66)
Wild Card: Atlanta Braves (91-71)

AL East: Boston Red Sox (98-64)
AL Central: Cleveland Indians (93-69)
AL West: Anaheim Angels (88-74)
Wild Card: New York Yankees (90-72)

NLDS: Arizona over Atlanta (3-2)
NLDS: Milwaukee over New York (3-1)
NLCS: Arizona over Milwaukee (4-2)

ALDS: Boston over Anaheim (3-0)
ALDS: Cleveland over New York (3-1)
ALCS: Cleveland over Boston (4-2)

World Series: Cleveland over Arizona 4-3

Team with worst record: San Francisco Giants 61-101

I really didn't want to pick the same AL playoff teams as last year, but I honestly cannot see it going any other way. The Mariners were the trendy pick by some in the west but their offense blows. Everybody picked the Tigers and their pitching blows with no prospects left to trade to upgrade their pitching. I'm not ready to pick the Royals despite the fact they really excite me. God, Cardinals-Royals games that are meaningful again! Awesome. I think Cleveland will venge their loss to Boston and holy hell does Arizona look tough! If they get ANYTHING from Randy Johnson I don't see a better team in the NL. I also see the Cubs missing the playoffs because they're overrated as hell, because I hate them and because they're the Cubs. The last time they made back-to-back playoff appearances was 1908!

Well, that's how I see things going. I'm going to wrap this up and grab some dinner. The Cards game is on the radio tonight at 10PM here and as usual if it's a day game in the US, I'll be listening here.

Over and out. Go you Redbirds!